| Current mood: |  thoughtful |
| Current music: | Billy Joel: Big Shot |
What's on the minds of the "super delegates"
If you're trying to figure out how the "super delegates" are going to vote, the first question you have to ask yourself is "what do the 'super delegates' want?"
To answer that you have to answer the question "who are the super delegates?"
And the answer to that is that the vast majority of them are Democrats currently elected to publish office. Many of whom are people who are up for re-election this year, or who have colleagues up for re-election in November.
So, what do they want? They want to get re-elected. If they're not up for re-election (or if they're not in a seriously contested race), they want those Democrats who are in tight races to win. Which is to say: they'd like to see the Democrat Party retain control of the House, Senate, and all the State Legislatures that they currently control, and they'd like to defeat Republicans in tight races where control can be affected.
If they could win the Presidency, too, that would be nice. But if you're a Democrat in Congress (esp. if you're chairman of a committee), keeping Democrat Party control of your chamber is a hell of a lot more important to you than the Democrat nominee winning the White House.
So, from that perspective: what will the super delegates do?
Frankly, i can't envision them doing the Republican Party the huge favor they'd be doing by giving the nomination to Clinton.
John McCain is not popular with the Republican Party base. At all. For a lot of really good reasons. He's going to have a good deal of work cut out for himself trying to get them motivated to go to the polls and vote for him.
OTOH, the Republican base hates the Clintons. Especially Hillary Rodham Clinton. Before the voting started, polls consistently showed that 47 - 49% of voters would not vote for Clinton, no matter who she was running against. As far as I know, those numbers haven't changed.
If you want an energized, active Republican base, that's eager to get out and vote, make Clinton the Democrat Party nominee for President.
IF you want a depressed, apathetic Democrat Party base, "steal" the nomination from Obama and give it to Clinton.
Clinton's been running for President since 2000. She (and everyone else) figured that her name meant she had the Democrat Party nomination sewed up, and so she needed to focus on winning the general election. Which meant she needed to stay towards the center, and work to decrease the intensity of the hatred that built up against her in the 1990s.
As a consequence, the party (non-union, non-black) base, which never trusted the Clintons after Bill's "triangulation" as President, doesn't like her. Which is why they flocked first around Edwards, and now Obama. These people are not going to be pleased if the Party Establishment overturns the will of the voters, and choses Clinton.
Then there are the black voters, who give the Democrats 90+% of their votes. How do you think they would react to the white Party Establishment stealing the election from the black candidate, and giving it to the white one?
Now, imagine you're a Democrat member of the House or Senate, or a Governor, up for re-election. You won your last race by 5 - 10%. Or your a Democrat member of the House or Senate, who likes being in the Majority party, and are aware of how many of your collegues won their last election in a close race.
Are you going to chose Clinton over Obama?
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